Contemplating Georgia and Mongolia
Ever since this scuffle between Georgia and Russia began, I’ve been pondering what effect Russia’s new aggressiveness might have on other former Soviet satellites. In particular, I’ve wondered about the effect on Mongolia. ComingAnarchy.com has done an assessment of the issue and seems to come to the conclusion that, despite the commonalities that Georgia and Mongolia share, Mongolia will stay off the Russian imperialistic radar for some time.
Mongolians realize that no outside power can project its power at the heart of Inner Asia forever, and the reality of living between two giant neighbors is something that Mongolia will arguably have forever.
Of course, because Mongolia does not threaten the interests of Russia or China like Georgia threatened Russia (bypassing pipelines, American troops presence, NATO involvement, etc.), both countries generally think of Mongolia as a strategic backwater. So Moscow and Beijing can be more generouis with Mongolia becoming close to the US, and its role as a buffer state won’t change—at least not in the eyes of Moscow.